Becker's Clinical Quality & Infection Control

35 PATIENT & CAREGIVER EXPERIENCE America's physician shortage could hit 124,000 in 13 years By Kelly Gooch T he U.S. could face a shortage of 37,800 to 124,000 physicians by 2034, accord- ing to data released June 11 from the Association of American Medical Colleges. e estimate compares to the association's 2020 report, which projected a shortage of 54,100 to 139,000 physicians by 2033. "e COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted many of the deepest disparities in health and access to healthcare services and exposed vulnerabilities in the health care system," David Skorton, MD, the association's presi- dent and CEO, said in a news release. "e pandemic also has underscored the vital role that physicians and other healthcare provid- ers play in our nation's healthcare infrastruc- ture and the need to ensure we have enough physicians to meet America's needs." e life science division of IHS Markit, a global information company, conduct- ed the study, and data for the study were collected in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. e association said the study includes supply and demand scenarios and was updated with the latest information on healthcare trends, such as revised numbers from the U.S. Health Resources & Services Administration, an HHS agency responsible for improving access to healthcare to people who are uninsured, isolated and otherwise medically vulnerable. Five study findings: 1. e 2021 update shows a potential shortage of 17,800 to 48,000 primary care physicians by 2034. 2. e U.S. faces a potential shortage of 21,000 to 77,100 nonprimary care specialty physicians by 2034. is includes 15,800 to 30,200 for surgical specialties, as well as 3,800 to 13,400 for medical specialties. 3. Population growth and aging are cited as the primary drivers of the projected physi- cian shortage from 2019 to 2034. e analy- sis accounted for projections suggesting the U.S. population will grow by 10.6 percent, from about 328 million to 363 million, by 2034, with the population of Americans ages 65 and older increasing by 42.4 percent. 4. e association also accounted for the potential influence of physician retirement in its physician shortage projections. More than 2 of 5 active physicians will be older than 65 in the next decade. 5. Improved access to care would increase the need for physicians. e association estimates suggest current demand would in- crease by an additional 180,400 physicians if marginalized minority populations, people living in rural areas and the uninsured used care the same way as those with coverage in metropolitan areas. n Stanford Health Care overhauls surveys By Molly Gamble S tanford Health Care gave its patient surveys a makeover this spring, with revised questions and digital options for completion so patients can share feedback immediately. Here are three ways the Palo Alto, Calif.-based system is changing patient surveys and why, as told on May 12 to Stanford School of Medicine Associate Editor Mandy Erickson: 1. Survey questions will be rewritten with input from a so- cial psychologist and professor of humanities at Stanford University. Alpa Vyas, Stanford Health Care's vice presi- dent and chief patient experience officer, said existing questions are vague and don't pertain to the patient's most recent experience. To revise, the system is conduct- ing interviews with patients to identify what's most import- ant to them and better understand how patients interpret questions. The new surveys will also be tailored to the pa- tient's most recent encounter. 2. Surveys will be shorter. "We will ask each patient fewer questions but still get the same amount of information," said Justin Ko, MD, the physician leader in safety, quali- ty and performance improvement for the Department of Dermatology and the medical director of service excel- lence. "For example, if we have 20 questions we want to ask, we can ask half of the patients 10 of those questions and the other half the rest of the questions. With more surveys, and better response rates — which we expect with shorter surveys — we can get the same number of answers to each question." 3. Surveys will go out immediately, most by email and even- tually by text. Some will be on paper and mailed. "We want more actionable data, in real time," said Ms. Vyas. "With the new system, we'll learn results from the surveys almost im- mediately, not weeks later." Stanford Health Care is the first academic medical center to use experience management platform Qualtrics for its entire patient experience pro- gram, including HCAHPS surveys. n Population growth and aging are cited as the primary drivers of the projected physician shortage from 2019 to 2034.

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