Becker's Hospital Review

72 CMO / CARE DELIVERY America's physician shortage could top 139,000 by 2033 By Kelly Gooch T he U.S. could face a shortage of be- tween 54,100 and 139,000 physicians by 2033, according to data published in late June from the Association of Amer- ican Medical Colleges. The estimate is higher than AAMC's 2019 report, which projected a shortage of up to 121,900 phy- sicians by 2032. "is annual analysis continues to show that our country will face a significant shortage of physicians in the coming years," AAMC Pres- ident and CEO David Skorton, MD, said in a news release. "e gap between the coun- try's increasing healthcare demands and the supply of doctors to adequately respond has become more evident as we continue to com- bat the COVID-19 pandemic. e challenge of having enough doctors to serve our com- munities will get even worse as the nation's population continues to grow and age." e Life Science division of IHS Markit, a global information company, conduct- ed the study for AAMC in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic. While the analysis excludes specific information or scenarios based on the pandemic, it does include sup- ply and demand scenarios and was updated with the information on healthcare trends, such as data on physician work hours and re- tirement trends, the association said. Five findings from the analysis: 1. e 2020 update shows a potential shortage of 21,400 to 55,200 primary care physicians by 2033. 2. e U.S. faces a potential shortage of 33,700 to 86,700 non-primary care specialty physi- cians by 2033. is includes 17,100 to 28,700 for surgical specialties. 3. AAMC cites population growth and aging as the primary drivers of the projected physi- cian shortage from 2018 to 2033. e analysis accounted for projections suggesting the U.S. population will grow by 10.4 percent, from about 327 million to 361 million, by 2033, with the population of Americans older than 65 increasing by 45.1 percent. 4. AAMC also accounted for the potential influence of physician retirement in its phy- sician shortage projections. More than two out of five currently active physicians will be older than 65 in the next 10 years. 5. Improved access to care would increase the need for physicians. e AAMC estimates suggest the current demand could increase by an additional 74,100 to 145,500 physicians if people living in non-metropolitan areas and the uninsured used care the same way as those with coverage in metropolitan areas. n Nursing schools seeing more applicants since pandemic By Mackenzie Bean S ome nursing schools are seeing an uptick in applica- tions, which may be due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to U.S. News & World Report. Regis College in Weston, Mass., saw a large increase in applicants to its nurse practitioner programs after the pan- demic started, according to Cassandra Godzik, PhD, assis- tant dean of the university's graduate nursing school. Villanova (Pa.) University's Fitzpatrick College of Nursing also admitted a record number of students to its BSNEx- press program this May. The program allows students with a bachelor's degree in another field to obtain their nursing degree in 14 months. Donna Havens, PhD, RN, dean of Villanova's nursing col- lege, suggested that the spotlight placed on front-line providers during the pandemic may be inspiring others to pursue nursing degrees. "For the first time in my career, I feel the world really un- derstands what nurses do, and they really understand how important the contributions of nurses are to health and healthcare," she told U.S. News. It is unclear whether the increase in nursing applications is a national trend, U.S. News noted. n 10 most in-demand medical specialties & average compensation By Ayla Ellison B elow are the 10 most in-demand medical specialties, according to Doximity's U.S. Physician Employment Report, accompanied by average annual compensa- tion based on responses Medscape collected from more than 17,000 physicians in more than 30 specialties. Data was collected before the COVID-19 pandemic began, and Med- scape noted that lower patient volume due to the pandemic could cause benchmarks for physicians to be lowered. 1. Family medicine: $234,000 2. Internal medicine: $251,000 3. Emergency medicine: $357,000 4. Psychiatry: $268,000 5. Obstetrics and gynecology: $308,000 6. Neurology: $280,000 7. Radiology: $427,000 8. Anesthesiology: $398,000 9. Pediatrics: $232,000 10. Cardiology: $438,000 n

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