Becker's Hospital Review

26 POPULATION HEALTH 26 CEO / STRATEGY When will hospitals recover from COVID-19? 3 questions answered By Morgan Haefner H ospital leaders nationwide are asking the same question: How quickly will they rebound from the pandemic? "Now that we are starting to see a number of markets peak, what will it mean?" Christopher Kerns, vice president of executive insights at the Advisory Board research firm, asked during an April 16 web conference. "When we start to think of volume recovery, a lot of atten- tion has been paid to the amount of elective volumes or nonelective volumes that have been forgone during this period." How providers recapture that volume will vary widely. Here are three questions and answers from the Advisory Board that map what a rebound could look like: Question: How long will it take a typical provider to recov- er losses from the cancellation of elective surgeries? Answer: The Advisory Board considered an inpatient surgery sce- nario where a 1,000-bed health system that usually performs 40 sur- geries a day, six days a week, at 80 percent of max capacity saw those procedures canceled for three months. If supply remains where it was before the pandemic, and no patients leave the hospital's queue for competitors, the Advisory Board predicts it will take 25 weeks to clear the queue. This time frame could be shortened to eight weeks if capacity is expanded by 20 percent, and 5 percent of patients left the queue each week. It varies based on capacity and other factors. Question: When will "normal" return, and what will it look like? Answer: e Advisory Board said hospitals could face a surge in COVID-19 cases aer social distancing is lied, which could put strain on capacity. e return of elective procedures will also bump inpatient hospital admissions, as could complications from nonelective proce- dures that people have delayed. Viral infections due to immune systems weakened from isolation could also increase volumes. When it comes to volume recovery, Mr. Kerns said there are four main questions hospitals should ask: • When do we reopen this service, considering safety, legal and pub- lic relation concerns? • How many patients should we leave in the queue? • What is our post-COVID-19 capacity for this service? • How is post-COVID-19 demand for this service different? "Our planners should be looking for answers to all of these questions. I would recommend that VPs of planning, chief strategy officers, CFOs [and] CEOs have answers for all of these questions for the major service lines within their organization," Mr. Kerns said. Question: When will utilization get back to pre-COVID-19 levels? Answer: e speed of recovery will vary based on several factors, some of which will have a significant effect on utilization, while others will have a lesser effect. In the near-term, state and federal orders that continue to prohibit elec- tive procedures will have the highest negative effect on utilization, while an increase in availability of personal protective equipment and tests will offset this. In the medium-term, several things will negatively affect utilization: backfilled cases, capacity constraints, lingering fear of infection and loss of insurance or job. In the long-term, utilization will increase as the availability of therapeutics and vaccines reduces the likelihood of a second COVID-19 wave. n NorthShore University HealthSystem CEO shares COVID-19 diagnosis, recovery By Morgan Haefner J .P. Gallagher, president and CEO of NorthShore Uni- versity HealthSystem in Evanston, Ill., tested positive for COVID-19 and has since recovered, he said in an April 2 memo to staff shared with Becker's Hospital Review. Mr. Gallagher said he went to one of NorthShore's immedi- ate care centers after experiencing mild fever-like symptoms in March. A test revealed he had the novel coronavirus. "My thoughts and concerns immediately shifted to my wife and our kids — particularly given that our oldest daughter lives with a chronic autoimmune disease," he wrote. "Thank- fully, they didn't show signs of the virus as my symptoms ul- timately passed and I was cleared by Employee Health to return to work." In his letter, Mr. Gallagher thanked NorthShore's staff for the preparations they've taken amid the COVID-19 pan- demic. He said volumes at the health system remain with- in capacity but the acuity of patients is increasing "and the impact of the virus is becoming personal." "I've learned through this experience, the most important thing each of us can do in this fight is follow the guide- lines and policies we've shared," he wrote. "These in- clude adhering to social distancing wherever possible, being vigilant with hand hygiene, and using protective equipment appropriately. It's also critical that we get rest, recharge, and enjoy time away from work with family and friends — whether virtually or otherwise." n

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